Llamada de aviso para la rupia

PRINCETON – La rupia india se ha debilitado rápidamente en los últimos meses, el tipo de cambio respecto del dólar cayó un 11 % y con ello se acercó a las 60 rupias a principios de mayo. La caída de la rupia, en tanto símbolo de la fortaleza económica de la India, ha provocado más lamentos y angustia de lo habitual en el país y el extranjero.

Efectivamente, hay motivos por los que preocuparse, pero no porque el valor de la rupia haya caído. De hecho, la caída se preveía desde hacía mucho tiempo y la reciente incertidumbre en el mercado constituyó meramente una llamada de aviso.

El motivo real de preocupación es que India ha perdido competitividad internacional y ha estado ganando tiempo a través de créditos otorgados por prestamistas volubles. El ímpetu del crecimiento se ha esfumado y, con una inflación elevada persistente, los productores indios luchan por competir en los mercados mundiales. El déficit en la cuenta corriente aumenta implacablemente debido al creciente déficit comercial (actualmente representa el 13 % del PBI), lo que eleva el peligro de una crisis de balanza de pagos.

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