Сигнал к пробуждению рупии

ПРИНСТОН – Индийская рупия быстро ослабла за последние месяцы: с начала мая обменный курс по отношению к доллару упал на 11%, до приблизительно 60 рупий. Падение рупии как символа экономической мощи Индии вызвало нечто большее, чем просто заламывание рук и страх, как внутри страны, так и за рубежом.

Существуют реальные основания для беспокойства, однако они заключаются не в падении стоимости рупии. В самом деле, спад ожидали уже давно, и недавняя неопределенность на рынке лишь послужила сигналом к пробуждению.

Реальная причина для беспокойства заключается в том, что Индия потеряла международную конкурентоспособность и просто выигрывала время за счет заимствования у непостоянных кредиторов. Импульс роста иссяк, а индийские производители пытаются конкурировать на мировых рынках в условиях постоянно высокого уровня инфляции. Дефицит текущего счета неуклонно растет благодаря расширяющемуся торговому дефициту (в настоящее время 13% ВВП), в результате увеличивая опасность кризиса платежного баланса.

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