印度卢比的警钟

发自普林斯顿——近几个月以来印度卢比汇率迅速走弱,自五月初以来,其对美元汇率下跌了11%,约为1美元对60卢比。作为印度经济力量的象征,卢比的贬值状况在印度国内外都引发了比往常更严重的绝望和焦虑。

人们确实有理由感到担心,但这并不是因为卢比的价值下降了。事实上这种下滑蓄势已久,而近期的市场不确定性仅仅是一记警钟罢了。

真正令人担心的原因是印度已经丧失了国际竞争力并一直通过四处借贷来拖延时间。由于增长势头已然萎蘼,通胀又居高不下,印度生产商只能在全球市场上苦苦挣扎。贸易赤字不断上升(现为GDP的13%)导致经常帐户赤字持续扩大,使得爆发国际收支危机的风险日渐增加。

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