Der Fall der Hypermacht

Man sollte dieser Tage genau auf die Israelis und Südkoreaner hören. Was sie andeuten, ist nicht weniger als eine tektonische Verschiebung im internationalen System: der Übergang von einer unipolaren zu einer multipolaren Welt.

Die Israelis entdecken Europa wieder. Sie spüren intuitiv, dass sie sich nicht mehr ausschließlich auf die absolute Sicherheitsgarantie verlassen können, die die Kombination aus aktiver und passiver Unterstützung der Vereinigten Staaten darstellte. Der für Israel ungemein frustrierende Krieg im Libanon hat diese schleichende Veränderung beschleunigt. Jetzt spielen Europa und seine verschiedenen Kontingente eine wichtige Rolle dabei, die Lage dort wieder in den Griff zu bekommen.

Amerika bleibt selbstverständlich Israels Lebensversicherungspolice, aber israelische Diplomaten, wenn nicht die israelische Gesellschaft, fangen langsam an, die Erweiterung und Diversifizierung der diplomatischen Bündnisse als entscheidend anzusehen. Das Nahost-Quartett (die USA, Russland, die Europäische Union und die Vereinten Nationen) wurden vormals als „Eins plus drei“ angesehen, aber das ist nicht mehr der Fall. Europa und Russland sehen sich nicht mehr als zweitrangige Mitspieler an, weil die USA und erst recht Israel sie brauchen.

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