设定通货膨胀目标的失效

    纽约--各国的中央银行行长们组成了一个联系紧密的俱乐部,他们习惯于赶风潮。在八十年代早期,他们深受弗里德曼鼓吹的货币主义简单化经济理论的影响。货币主义名声丧失,那些推崇这一理论的国家付出了高昂的代价。从那以后,人们开始寻找新的理论。

    “设定通货膨胀目标”应运而生。这一理论主张,只要价格增长超过设定的水平,利率就应该提高。这一粗糙的药方不是建立在经济理论或者经验主义证据的基础之上。人们没有理由预期,无论通胀的源泉为何,最佳的应对措施就是提高利率。人们希望大多数国家有足够的理智不去设定通货膨胀目标。对于那些实行通胀目标国家的不幸公民我表示同情。(那些以这种或者那种形式设定通胀目标的国家有:以色列、捷克共和国、波兰、巴西、智力、哥伦比亚、南非、泰国、韩国、墨西哥、匈牙利、秘鲁、菲律宾、斯洛伐克、印尼、罗马尼亚、新西兰、加拿大、英国、瑞典、澳大利亚、冰岛以及挪威。)

    如今,设定通胀目标受到了考验,而且它几乎可能通不过考验。发展中国家目前面临更高的通胀率并非是因为宏观管理不善,而是由于石油和食品价格在窜升。与富国相比,这些项目在平均家庭预算中占据更大的比例。例如在中国,通胀正在迫近8%或者更高。在越南,通胀甚至更高而且预计将会在今年达到18.2%。印度的通胀是5.8%。与此相比,美国的通胀是3%。这是否意味着这些发展中国家应该提高利率大大超过美国呢?

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/sBSpapG/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now