设定通货膨胀目标的失效

    纽约--各国的中央银行行长们组成了一个联系紧密的俱乐部,他们习惯于赶风潮。在八十年代早期,他们深受弗里德曼鼓吹的货币主义简单化经济理论的影响。货币主义名声丧失,那些推崇这一理论的国家付出了高昂的代价。从那以后,人们开始寻找新的理论。

    “设定通货膨胀目标”应运而生。这一理论主张,只要价格增长超过设定的水平,利率就应该提高。这一粗糙的药方不是建立在经济理论或者经验主义证据的基础之上。人们没有理由预期,无论通胀的源泉为何,最佳的应对措施就是提高利率。人们希望大多数国家有足够的理智不去设定通货膨胀目标。对于那些实行通胀目标国家的不幸公民我表示同情。(那些以这种或者那种形式设定通胀目标的国家有:以色列、捷克共和国、波兰、巴西、智力、哥伦比亚、南非、泰国、韩国、墨西哥、匈牙利、秘鲁、菲律宾、斯洛伐克、印尼、罗马尼亚、新西兰、加拿大、英国、瑞典、澳大利亚、冰岛以及挪威。)

    如今,设定通胀目标受到了考验,而且它几乎可能通不过考验。发展中国家目前面临更高的通胀率并非是因为宏观管理不善,而是由于石油和食品价格在窜升。与富国相比,这些项目在平均家庭预算中占据更大的比例。例如在中国,通胀正在迫近8%或者更高。在越南,通胀甚至更高而且预计将会在今年达到18.2%。印度的通胀是5.8%。与此相比,美国的通胀是3%。这是否意味着这些发展中国家应该提高利率大大超过美国呢?

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