Los extremistas desatados

JERUSALEN – El patrón de estrategia política en Oriente Medio, como fue definido desde el discurso del “eje de mal” del presidente Bush en enero de 2002, está pasando por un cambio trascendental de dirección. El paradigma de política exterior de Bush de una alianza de “moderados” para derrotar a los “extremistas” –un modelo secundado demasiado entusiastamente por un liderazgo israelí poco imaginativo y por aquellos árabes (liderados por Egipto y Arabia Saudita) que temen las fuerzas del cambio radical- ha colapsado. Los “extremistas”, que Bush esperaba ver derrotados a través de sanciones económicas, el aislamiento diplomático y la acción militar, han prevalecido. Son los “moderados” los que ahora deben adaptar sus políticas.

Israel y Estados Unidos fracasaron rotundamente en su intento por desplazar a Hamas de Gaza u obligarlo a aceptar condiciones para un fin al boicot internacional. Por temor a los costos de una invasión en los corredores urbanos de Gaza, Israel le entregó una victoria estratégica a Hamas. Aceptó una tregua, negociada por un gobierno egipcio temeroso de la influencia de Irán en la vecina Gaza, que no sólo le dio legitimidad política a Hamas y socavó la política de la comunidad internacional de no negociar con este grupo fundamentalista, sino que también le permitió seguir rearmándose. De hecho, Hamas ahora plantea una amenaza estratégica para los centros urbanos y las instalaciones militares de Israel.

La guerra de Israel en 2006 en el Líbano contra Hezbollah, respaldada por Estados Unido y todo el campo “moderado” árabe, no fue más exitosa. Por cierto, Hezbollah hoy no sólo es militarmente más fuerte que nunca –la Resolución 1701 del Consejo de Seguridad, que exigió su desarme, terminó siendo un absoluto fracaso-, sino también más robusto políticamente que antes de la guerra. Admirablemente adepto a entrelazar todos los hilos políticos, religiosos y nacionalistas del Líbano, el líder de Hezbollah, Hassan Nazrallah, hoy es el amo indiscutible del Líbano.

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