不受约束的极端主义者

 耶路撒冷-布什总统在2002年1月发表“邪恶轴心”演讲后确定了中东政策的制定模式,现在该模式正在经历一个重大的方向性变化。布什用与“温和派”结盟来打败“极端主义者”的外交政策范例——一个极其需要缺乏想象力的以色列领导层和害怕激进变革力量的阿拉伯国家(这些阿拉伯国家由埃及和沙特阿拉伯领导)支持的模式——已经失败了。布什期望通过经济制裁、外交孤立和军事行动打败的“极端主义者”已经取得了胜利。现在,“温和派”必须调整他们的政策了。

以色列和美国将哈马斯从加沙驱逐出去的努力以及迫使哈马斯接受条件以换取结束对其的国际封锁都彻底失败了。因为担心侵入加沙进行街头巷战的代价,以色列由此使哈马斯取得了一个策略性的胜利。以色列接受了由埃及政府——它担心伊朗对与之接壤的加沙的影响力——作为中间人促成的停战协定,该协定不仅给予了哈马斯政治合法性,破坏了国际社会不与哈马斯这样的原教旨团体谈判的政策,而且允许哈马斯继续重整军备。事实上,哈马斯现在对以色列的城市中心区域和军事设施构成了战略性的威胁。

以色列于2006年在黎巴嫩袭击真主党的战争——该战争得到了美国以及整个阿拉伯“温和派”阵营的支持——不再是一个成功。事实上,真主党不仅在军事实力上变得前所未有的强大——要求真主党裁军的安理会1701号决议已经成为完全失败——而且,在政治上比战争前更有活力。真主党的领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nazrallah)善于将黎巴嫩的政治、宗教和民族主义编织起来加以利用,他现在是黎巴嫩毋庸置疑的首领。

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