Paul Lachine

El tipo de cambio no es el único problema

MILÁN – Si miramos los patrones comerciales de los dos principales actores de la economía mundial, dos aspectos saltan a la vista. Uno de ellos es que mientras los Estados Unidos tienen un déficit comercial con casi todos los países, incluidos Canadá, México, China, Alemania, Francia, Japón, Corea del Sur y Taiwán, sin mencionar los países exportadores de petróleo, el déficit más grande lo tienen con China. Si los datos comerciales se volvieran a calcular tomando en cuenta el país de origen de los distintos componentes del valor agregado, el panorama general no cambiaría, pero sí las magnitudes relativas: mayores déficits de los Estados Unidos con Alemania, Corea del Sur, Taiwán y Japón, y un déficit dramáticamente más bajo con China.

El segundo aspecto es que Japón, Corea del Sur y Taiwán –todas hasta cierto punto economías de altos ingresos- tienen un amplio superávit comercial con China. Alemania ha equilibrado relativamente su comercio con China, que incluso ha registrado un modesto superávit bilateral en el periodo posterior a la crisis.

Los Estados Unidos tienen en un constante déficit comercial global que fluctúa entre el 3% y 6% del PIB. Sin embargo, mientras el total refleja déficits bilaterales con casi todos los países, el congreso estadounidense está obsesionado con China, y parece estar convencido que la causa principal del problema radica en la manipulación china del tipo de cambio del renminbi.

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