Paul Lachine

Die Wechselkursillusion

MAILAND: Betrachtet man die Handelsmuster der beiden größten Akteure innerhalb der Weltwirtschaft, springen zwei Tatsachen ins Auge. Die eine ist, dass, auch wenn die USA Handelsdefizite gegenüber fast jedem aufweisen – u.a. Kanada, Mexiko, China, Deutschland, Frankreich, Japan, Südkorea und Taiwan, von den Öl exportierenden Ländern gar nicht zu reden – das größte Defizit gegenüber China besteht. Würde man die Handelsdaten neu berechnen, sodass sie das Ursprungsland der verschiedenen Wertschöpfungskomponenten widerspiegeln, würde sich zwar das allgemeine Bild nicht ändern, wohl aber die relativen Größenordnungen: Wir hätten höhere US-Defizite gegenüber Deutschland, Südkorea, Taiwan und Japan und ein drastisch niedrigeres Defizit gegenüber China.

Die zweite Tatsache ist, dass Japan, Südkorea und Taiwan – alles Volkswirtschaften mit relativ hohem Einkommen – gegenüber China einen großen Handelsüberschuss aufweisen. Deutschland weist gegenüber China einen relativ ausgeglichenen Handel auf und verzeichnet seit Ausbruch der Krise sogar einen bescheidenen bilateralen Überschuss.

Die USA haben ein dauerhaftes Gesamthandelsdefizit von 3-6% vom BIP. Doch während das Gesamtdefizit bilaterale Defizite mit praktisch jedem widerspiegelt, ist der US-Kongress von China besessen und scheint überzeugt, dass die Hauptursache des Problems die chinesische Manipulation des Renminbi-Wechselkurses ist.

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