Paul Lachine

汇率幻觉

米兰——看看世界全球两大经济体的贸易模式,你可以发现两个事实。首先,美国对几乎所有国家都存在贸易赤字,包括加拿大、墨西哥、中国、德国、法国、如本、韩国和中国台湾,更不用说石油出口国了,其中最大的赤字来自中国哦。但如果贸易数据根据增加值成分原产地进行重新计算,那么,基本图景没有发生变化,但美国赤字主要来自德国、韩国、中国台湾和日本,而对中国的赤字显著降低了。

其次,日本、韩国和中国台湾——均为相对高收入经济体——对中国均有很大的贸易盈余。德国对中国的贸易相对平衡,但在危机到来之前也有一定的双边盈余。

美国的贸易赤字总量一直维持在GDP的3—6%之间。但是,总量反映的是对每个国家的双边赤字,而美国国会总是针对中国,认定问题主要出在中国对人民汇率的操纵上。

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