La defensa de la eurozona se debilita

PRINCETON – Mientras todas las miradas estaban puestas en la periferia europea, ¿será que el núcleo de la eurozona comenzó a resquebrajarse? El Bundesbank redujo a 0,4% la previsión de crecimiento anual del PIB de Alemania en 2013. Por su parte, el Banco Central de los Países Bajos prevé que el PIB holandés se reduzca -0,5% este año y todavía más en 2014.

Es posible que la crisis de la eurozona esté entrando en su tercera etapa. La primera etapa comenzó en la primavera boreal de 2008, cuando el epicentro de la crisis noratlántica se trasladó desde Estados Unidos hasta la eurozona, sometiendo a los bancos de la región a presiones que aumentaron las tensiones interbancarias.

En la segunda etapa, que empezó en la primavera de 2009, la crisis se propagó a las deudas soberanas; en ese momento, los inversores comenzaron a temer que el esfuerzo de sostener a los bancos sería extenuante para las finanzas públicas. Estos temores aumentaron a su vez el nivel de riesgo aparente de los bancos, cuyos destinos quedaron de tal modo unidos a los de sus correspondientes gobiernos.

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