Uno squarcio nella diga dell’eurozona

PRINCETON – Mentre tutti gli occhi erano puntati sulla periferia dell’eurozona, i paesi centrali hanno subito un tracollo? La Bundesbank ha ridotto le sue previsioni per la crescita del PIL tedesco nel 2013 allo 0,4%, mentre la Banca Centrale dei Paesi Bassi prevede per quest’anno una contrazione del PIL olandese pari allo 0,5% e un’ulteriore contrazione nel 2014.

Sembra quindi che la crisi dell’eurozona stia entrando nel terzo stadio. Durante il primo stadio, iniziato nella primavera del 2008, il fulcro della crisi nordatlantica si è spostato dagli Stati Uniti all’eurozona, mettendo sotto pressione le banche dell’eurozona e aumentando le tensioni interbancarie.

Nella seconda fase, iniziata nell’estate del 2009, la crisi si è poi diffusa ai debiti sovrani facendo aumentare la preoccupazione degli investitori per l’eventuale pressione sulle finanze pubbliche determinata dalla necessità di sostenere le banche. D’altra parte, la debolezza dei debiti sovrani ha comportato grandi rischi, in apparenza, per le banche, rendendole infine inseparabili dai loro governi. 

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