欧元区大坝上的蚁穴

普林斯顿—所有人的眼睛都盯着欧洲外围国,然则核心区安否?德国央行将其2013年德国年GDP增长预期降低到了0.4%。荷兰央行预计今年荷兰GDP将下降0.5%,2014年降幅还将扩大。

欧元区危机或许正在步入第三阶段。第一阶段始于2008年春,北大西洋危机从美国转移到了欧元区。欧元区银行承压,银行间市场开始紧张起来。

第二阶段始于2009年春,危机蔓延到主权债务,因为投资者越来越担心支持银行会拖累政府财政。反过来,主权弱势导致银行风险增加,银行和母国政府成了一条绳上的蚂蚱。

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