Paul Lachine

L’ultima possibilità di sopravvivenza per l’Eurozona

NEW YORK – La crisi dell’Eurozona sta raggiungendo l’apice. La Grecia è insolvente. Il Portogallo e l’Irlanda hanno recentemente visto i propri bond declassati a titoli “spazzatura”. La Spagna rischia tuttora di perdere il libero accesso al mercato dal momento che alle sofferenze fiscali e finanziarie si va ad aggiungere l’incertezza politica. Ora la pressione finanziaria sta piombando anche sull’Italia.

Il debito pubblico greco toccherà il 160% del Pil entro il 2012. Le alternative alla ristrutturazione del debito stanno rapidamente perdendo quota. Un salvataggio ufficiale, su vasca scala, del settore pubblico greco (da parte del Fondo monetario internazionale, della Banca centrale europea e del Fondo salva-stati Efsf, European Financial Stability Facility) sarebbe il più grande azzardo che sia mai stato fatto: estremamente costoso e politicamente quasi impossibile, a causa della resistenza da parte degli elettori dei paesi “core” dell’Eurozona – a partire dai tedeschi.

Nel frattempo, l’attuale proposta francese di un roll-over volontario delle banche sta fallendo, perché imporrebbe tassi di interesse eccessivamente elevati per i greci. In modo analogo, i riacquisti di debito sarebbero un’enorme perdita di risorse, dal momento che valore residuo del debito aumenta a fronte degli acquisti, facendo il gioco dei creditori a discapito dei debitori sovrani.

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