Paul Lachine

Das letzte Gefecht der Eurozone

NEW YORK – Die Krise in der Eurozone nähert sich ihrem Höhepunkt. Griechenland ist insolvent. Die Staatsanleihen Portugals und Irlands sind kürzlich auf Ramsch-Status herabgestuft worden. Spanien könnte seinen Marktzugang noch immer verlieren, weil sich zu seinen fiskalischen und finanziellen Nöten noch politische Unsicherheit hinzugesellt. Der finanzielle Druck auf Italien steigt.

Bis 2012 werden die griechischen Staatschulden über 160 Prozent des BIP ausmachen und weiter steigen. Die Alternativen zu einer Umschuldung schwinden rasch. Ein vollständiger offizieller Bailout des öffentlichen Sektors in Griechenland (durch den Internationalen Währungsfonds, die Europäische Zentralbank und die Europäische Finanzstabilitätsfazilität) wäre die Mutter aller Moral Hazards: Extrem teuer und politisch beinahe unmöglich aufgrund des Widerstandes der Wähler in den Kernländern der Eurozone – angefangen bei den Deutschen.

Unterdessen floppt gerade der französische Vorschlag einer freiwilligen Verlängerung der Schulden durch die Banken, weil damit prohibitiv hohe Zinssätze für die Griechen verbunden wären. Auch der Anleihen-Rückkauf wäre eine massive Verschwendung offizieller Ressourcen, weil der Restwert der Anleihen mit dem Kauf steigt, wovon die Gläubiger viel mehr profitieren als der Anleihenschuldner.

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