Paul Lachine

Le dernier combat de la zone euro

NEW YORK – La crise de la zone euro arrive à son paroxysme. La Grèce est insolvable. Les obligations du Portugal et de l’Irlande ont récemment été dégradées au niveau de junk bonds (« obligations poubelles », présentant le niveau de risque le plus élevé, ndt). L’Espagne est toujours susceptible de perdre son accès au marché, à cause des incertitudes politiques qui s’ajoutent à ses difficultés fiscales et financières. Enfin, la pression financière sur l’Italie monte de plus en plus.

D’ici à 2012, la dette publique grecque sera supérieure à 160% et toujours en augmentation. Les alternatives à une restructuration de dette sont de plus en plus improbables. Un sauvetage généralisé du secteur public de la Grèce (par le Fonds Monétaire International, la Banque Centrale Européenne et le Fonds Européen de Stabilité Financière) génèrerait tous les problèmes de hasard moral imaginables : extrêmement coûteux et pratiquement impossible politiquement, à cause de la résistance des électeurs au cour de la zone euro – à commencer par les Allemands.

En attendant, la proposition française actuelle concernant une reconduction de dette volontaire par les banques est un bide, étant donné qu’elle imposerait des taux d’intérêt prohibitifs aux Grecs. De même, des rachats de dette représenteraient un gâchis massif de ressources officielles, car l’augmentation de la valeur résiduelle de la dette qui en résulte est bien plus bénéfique aux créanciers qu’aux débiteurs souverains.

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