Paul Lachine

Poslední vzepětí eurozóny

NEW YORK – Krize eurozóny vrcholí. Řecko je insolventní. Dluhopisy Portugalska a Irska byly nedávno deklasovány na rizikovou úroveň. O přístup na trh by ještě mohlo přijít Španělsko, neboť k tamním fiskálním a finančním strastem se přidává politická nejistota. Finanční tlak na Itálii právě narůstá.

K roku 2012 řecký veřejný dluh přesáhne 160 % HDP a dále poroste. Alternativy k restrukturalizaci dluhu se rychle vytrácejí. Úplná oficiální finanční záchrana řeckého veřejného sektoru (Mezinárodním měnovým fondem, Evropskou centrální bankou a Evropským mechanismem finanční stability) by byla matkou všech her s morálním hazardem: extrémně nákladnou a politicky téměř nemožnou, vzhledem k odporu voličů v jádru eurozóny – v prvé řadě Němců.

Aktuální francouzský návrh, aby banky dobrovolně převedly půjčky na nové s delší splatností, končí fiaskem, neboť na Řeky by to uvalilo prohibitivně vysoké úrokové sazby. Odkupy dluhu by zase znamenaly rozsáhlé mrhání oficiálními prostředky, jelikož zbytková hodnota dluhu při odkupech narůstá, což prospívá věřitelům mnohem víc než suverénnímu dlužníkovi.

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