Paul Lachine

欧元区到了最危险的时候

纽约——欧元区危机迎来高潮。希腊丧失了偿债能力。葡萄牙和爱尔兰的公债信用新近被调低至垃圾级。西班牙的政局不明朗,使财政和金融困境雪上加霜,令其仍被资本市场拒之门外。意大利的金融压力也陡然加剧。

到2012年,希腊公债的GDP占比将攀升至160%。除了债务重组,其他的出路变得越来越渺茫。如果彻底由欧洲各国和有关国际组织(IMF、欧洲央行、欧洲金融稳定基金等等)来保释希腊公共部门,将会引发前所未有的道德风险:代价极其昂贵且政治上几乎无望,因为欧元区核心国家的选民会强烈抵制,德国选民首先就会说“不”。

与此同时,法国提议的由债权银行自愿滚仓的办法也没用,因为那会使希腊债券的息率高得吓人。同样,债务回购也将是对官方资源的严重浪费,因为回购使会高估这些债券的折余价值,从中受益的将主要是债权人,而不是主权债务人。

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