Dean Rohrer

La encrucijada de la eurozona

BUENOS AIRES – Muchos observadores han declarado recientemente que la crisis de deuda de la eurozona está prácticamente resuelta, o al menos estable durante algunos años. Los rendimientos decrecientes de los bonos del gobierno italiano durante la más reciente subasta  de 2011 indican que ha bajado considerablemente la percepción del riesgo de impago de la deuda soberana. Dado que a los bonos italianos se les ve como indicador de la crisis, muchos lo interpretan como una señal de que el mercado de deuda europeo se está normalizando.

La “solución” a la crisis la dio supuestamente el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) con su decisión de ofrecer financiamiento ilimitado a los bancos comerciales por periodos de tres años a tasas de interés muy bajas. No obstante, un banco central normalmente haría incluso más para cumplir sus funciones como acreedor de último recurso. ¿Entonces por qué todo este optimismo renovado?

La respuesta inmediata es que los bancos nacionales ahora usarán ese esquema para obtener créditos baratos del BCE e invertir a corto plazo en bonos soberanos usando el diferencial de la tasa de interés para crear operaciones de acarreo soberanas. A pesar de las deficiencias y distorsiones que provocó dicho tipo de financiamiento monetario, el BCE bien puede ofrecer un respiro a los gobiernos.

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