Die bevorstehenden Inflationsunterschiede in der Eurozone

ZÜRICH – Die Diskussionen im EZB-Rat, dessen nächste Sitzung für den 7. April anberaumt ist, werden wohl hitzig geraten. Aufgrund der Gefahr, dass eine steigende Inflation in den Schwellenländern Asiens auf Europa übergreifen könnte, werden die Inflationsfalken in der Zentralbank denjenigen gegenüberstehen, die eine schnellstmögliche Rückkehr zur Vollbeschäftigung sicherstellen möchten. Da die Inflationsraten innerhalb der Eurozone  unterschiedlich hoch sind, könnte allerdings ein neuerlicher Konflikt nationaler Interessen zu noch erheblicheren Meinungsverschiedenheiten führen.

Der Grund für diese divergierenden Inflationsraten besteht darin, dass Importe aus China und anderen ostasiatischen Ökonomien in Deutschland und Belgien eine viel größere Rolle spielen als in den Ländern Südeuropas. So beliefen sich beispielsweise Deutschlands Importe aus China im Jahr 2009 auf rund 63 Milliarden Dollar und entsprachen somit in ihrem Umfang  nahezu den gesamten Importen aus Frankreich, Griechenland, Italien, Portugal und Spanien zusammen. Außerdem ist Chinas Bedeutung für den Handel – als Anteil am BIP – in Deutschland doppelt so hoch wie in jedem anderen der genannten Länder.

Zusätzlich zu diesen Unterschieden hinsichtlich des relativen Ausmaßes der Importe ist der positive Preiseffekt durch billige Importkonkurrenz in Deutschlands wettbewerbsfähiger Einzelhandelslandschaft viel größer als in den traditionelleren und nicht wettbewerbsfähigen Einzelhandelssystemen in Italien oder Griechenland.

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