Las consecuencias para Europa de las elecciones en Alemania

ESTAMBUL – Hace casi un siglo, en 1919, John Maynard Keynes analizó las consecuencias económicas de la paz tras la derrota de Alemania en la primera guerra mundial. Desde luego, las consecuencias de las elecciones generales que se celebrarán el 22 de septiembre en Alemania no serán ni mucho menos tan transcendentales, pero el resultado no será tan intranscendente como la mayoría de los analistas afirman actualmente.

Para empezar, aun cuando la coalición Unión Demócrata Cristiana (CDU)-Partido Democrático Liberal (FDP) forme el nuevo gobierno, la Canciller Angela Merkel podría adoptar decisiones más valientes y a largo plazo sin tener que preocuparse por las consecuencias electorales inmediatas. Podría aplicar un programa de dos o tres años, en lugar de su estrategia actual de cuatro semanas.

El programa postelectoral de Merkel podría seguir siendo muy prudente, con insistencia en la consolidación fiscal a medio plazo para Alemania y la zona del euro en conjunto a costa del empleo y del crecimiento, pero una Merkel reelegida estaría dispuesta sin lugar a dudas a continuar, al menos con pequeños pasos, con la creación de una unión bancaria europea, incluido un mecanismo de resolución que recurra a los recursos de toda la zona del euro.

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