Le Conseguenze Europee dell'Elezione Tedesca

ISTANBUL – Quasi un secolo fa, nel 1919, John Maynard Keynes ha analizzato le conseguenze economiche della pace dopo la sconfitta della Germania nella prima guerra mondiale certamente, le conseguenze delle elezioni politiche in Germania il 22 settembre non saranno altrettanto importanti. Ma il risultato non sarà così irrilevante come la maggior parte degli analisti attualmente sostengono.

Per cominciare, anche se l'attuale coalizione Unione Cristiano-Democratica (CDU)-Partito Liberal Democratico (FDP) formasse il prossimo governo, il cancelliere Angela Merkel potrebbe prendere decisioni a più lungo termine e più coraggiose senza doversi preoccupare dell'immediato impatto elettorale. Sarebbe in grado di portare avanti un programma con un orizzonte di due o tre anni, invece della sua attuale strategia a quattro settimane.

L’agenda post-elettorale della Merkel potrebbe comunque essere ancora molto cauta, puntando su un consolidamento fiscale a medio termine per la Germania e per la zona euro nel suo complesso a scapito del sostegno all'occupazione e alla crescita. Ma una Merkel rieletta sarebbe senza dubbio disposta a procedere, almeno a piccoli passi, verso la creazione di un’unione bancaria europea , che comprende anche un meccanismo di risoluzione che attinge alle risorse dell’intera zona euro.

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