Evropské důsledky německých voleb

ISTANBUL – Téměř před sto lety, v roce 1919, analyzoval John Maynard Keynes ekonomické důsledky míru uzavřeného po porážce Německa v první světové válce. Důsledky německých parlamentních voleb plánovaných na 22. září jistě nebudou zdaleka tak zásadní. Přesto jejich výsledek nebude tak nepodstatný, jak dnes většina analytiků tvrdí.

Za prvé platí, že pokud příští vládu sestaví současná koalice Křesťanskodemokratické unie (CDU) a Svobodné demokratické strany (FDP), mohla by kancléřka Angela Merkelová činit dlouhodobější a odvážnější rozhodnutí bez obav z bezprostředních dopadů na volební preference. Mohla by pak prosazovat dvouletý nebo tříletý program namísto současné čtyřtýdenní strategie.

Povolební agenda Merkelové možná bude dál velmi opatrná a bude klást důraz na střednědobou fiskální konsolidaci Německa i celé eurozóny na úkor podpory zaměstnanosti a růstu. Opětovně zvolená Merkelová by však bezpochyby byla ochotná pokračovat alespoň po malých krůčcích v budování evropské bankovní unie, včetně mechanismu řešení, jenž bude čerpat ze zdrojů celé eurozóny.

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