Economics

德国选举在欧洲的后果

Sep 16, 2013 Kemal Derviş

伊斯坦布尔——近一个世纪前的1919年，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在一次大战德国战败后对和平的经济后果进行了分析。9月22日德国大选的影响力肯定不会如此之大。但也不会像多数分析人士所说的那样无足轻重。

首先，即便仍由基督教民主联盟（CDU）和自由民主党（FDP）联合组成下届政府，总理默克尔也会因为不必担心直接影响选举结果而敢于做出长远、勇敢的决定。她可以放弃目前的四周战略，开始执行两年或三年计划。

默克尔的后选举议程可能依然会非常谨慎，以牺牲就业和经济增长为代价强调对德国和欧元区进行一体化中期财政整顿。但再次当选的默克尔无疑愿意继续建设，至少是小步推进欧洲银行联盟、包括能动用欧元区资源的决议机制的建立。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Marco Cattaneo Sep 21, 2013

The Europe monetary system has to be thoroughly reformed. "More Europe" will never work, reintroducing monetary autonomy on a country by country basis is the only sensible way to go. http://bastaconleurocrisi.blogspot.it/2013/09/certificati-di-credito-fiscale-ccf.html
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Kir Komrik Sep 21, 2013

Thank you for this very important set of observations,

You wrote:
"The German election will not ... suddenly open the door to a federal Europe on the model of the United States, with large implicit fiscal transfers and highly centralized defense and foreign policies. But, at a minimum, the outcome is likely to speed up implementation of eurozone decisions that have already been made, leading to somewhat more expansionary economic policies in both Germany and the eurozone."

I find their lack of audacity disturbing. Europe, imho, and for its sake, should move to a true federal system yesterday. In particular, they need a Euro that is fully backed by rule of law, not the half-baked backing it has now. This is a key deficiency that needs fixing very quickly, imo. Monetary policy must be uniform and if for one then for all equitably. This kind of assumes a more central authority and role for the ECB as well.

The EU needs a stronger executive yesterday, imho. And it needs a fundamental law ratified by all the states because that is the core of the very meaning of rule of law. It all starts there, even if it is just parchment. What they have now won't pass for an articles of confederation, much less any real fundamental law.

I see serious risks for Europe the longer it continues down a path without these key innovations and related institutions, and I cannot stress that point enough. It is a durability issue. "Nations" moving in the kind of treacherous waters the EU is in right now, half-cooked, not done and sloppier by the minute, tend not to last long.

Finally, and imo, the financial crises cannot be competently managed until the EU reaches a truly federal form, particularly the advances in the monetary system I described.

- kk
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hari naidu Sep 17, 2013

Your assumptions are all false because 22 Sept will most likely produce a SPD Chancellor - without CDU (Merkel).

Then what?

BTW Berlin decision-makers during Euro crisis are on both sides of the aisles Libertarians!
- dalai guevara Sep 19, 2013
  
  choice, of course
  silly me
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- dalai guevara Sep 19, 2013
  
  hari, forgive me for assuming you are not a betting man, because if you were and you were putting your money where your mouth is, I would happily bet any amount of your choise that you are wrong.
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Frank O'Callaghan Sep 16, 2013

the issue is not one of national redistribution from one country to another but of the gross enrichment of the few at the expense of the many that has happened over the past 30 to 40 years. Without reversing this inequality there is no solution.

Germany has benefited from the euro to a huge extent but is unwilling to carry it's costs. This is not surprising. The countries that have suffered from the euro were run in such a manner that those in control passed the benefits to their "friends" while indebting the state.

During this "crisis" the rich have become very rich and most others have or will become poor.
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