Paul Lachine

La posición de cesación de pago de la eurozona

WASHINGTON, DC – Kazajstán puede estar muy lejos de la eurozona, pero sus experiencias económicas recientes son altamente relevantes para las tribulaciones actuales del euro. Mientras la zona del euro lucha con las crisis de deuda y la austeridad de sus miembros más débiles, Kazajstán está surgiendo de un colapso generalizado del sistema bancario con una recuperación económica sólida.

Durante gran parte de la década pasada, un despilfarro de préstamos se apoderó de Kazajstán, cortesía de los bancos globales –como fue el caso en gran parte del sur de Europa-. La toma de crédito en el exterior por parte de los bancos kazajos llegó a representar cerca del 50% del PBI, y muchos de estos fondos se utilizaron para proyectos de construcción. Mientras entraba dinero a raudales, los salarios subían, los precios de los bienes raíces alcanzaban niveles próximos a los parisinos y la gente se engañaba a sí misma pensando que Kazajstán se había convertido en el último tigre de Asia.

La fiesta llegó a un fin estrepitoso en 2009, cuando dos bancos de inversión globales muy sagaces aceleraron los aplazamientos de pago –con la esperanza de recuperar su dinero-. El gobierno kazajo, que venía pugnando por respaldar a sus bancos privados sobredimensionados con inyecciones de capital y nacionalizaciones, tiró la toalla y cortó el chorro. Los bancos dejaron de pagar sus créditos y los acreedores aceptaron importantes “recortes” (reducción en el valor principal).

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