Paul Lachine

I rischi di default nell’eurozona

WASHINGTON, DC -  Il Kazachistan è certo lontano dall’eurozona, ma le sue recenti esperienze economiche hanno qualcosa di importante da dire circa le attuali difficoltà dell’euro. Mentre l’eurozona è alle prese con la crisi debitoria e le regole di austerità di alcuni suoi membri più deboli, il Kazachistan sta emergendo con una forte ripresa economica da un grave collasso del suo sistema bancario.

Per la maggior parte dell’ultimo decennio, il Kazachistan si è dedicato con passione all’eccesso di spesa, grazie alla cortesia del sistema bancario globale: esattamente come gran parte dell’Europa meridionale. L’indebitamento estero delle banche kazache arrivava al 50% del Pil. Molti di questi fondi sono stati usati per progetti immobiliari. I soldi affluivano, gli stipendi aumentavano, i prezzi immobiliari raggiungevano livelli parigini, e la gente si illudeva che il Kazachistan fosse entrato a gran carriera nel novero delle “tigri” asiatiche.

La festa finì rovinosamente nel 2009, quando due avventurose banche d’investimento globali accelerarono il rientro dei crediti, nella speranza di salvare il salvabile. Il governo kazaco gettò la spugna, dopo avere cercato a lungo di sorreggere le sue sovraesposte banche private con iniezioni di capitale e nazionalizzazioni. Le banche dichiararono default e i creditori dovettero accettare consistenti “tagli”  al valore dei crediti concessi.

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