Paul Lachine

La vulnerabile Europa

CAMBRIDGE – L’Europa sta affrontando una crisi costituzionale. Nessuno sembra avere la forza di imporre una soluzione efficace per risolvere la crisi debitoria dei paesi periferici. Invece di ristrutturare i debiti palesemente insostenibili di Portogallo, Irlanda e Grecia (Pig), politici e policymaker fanno pressioni per ottenere pacchetti di salvataggio sempre più ampi che prevedono condizioni di austerità sempre meno realistiche. Sfortunatamente non solo “tirano per le lunghe”, sembra addirittura che la situazione gli stia sfuggendo di mano.

Per il momento, il problema è ancora gestibile dal punto di vista economico. La crescita dell’Eurozona è buona, ma i Pig rappresentano solo il 6% del Pil totale. Sostenendo ostinatamente che tali paesi stanno affrontando una crisi di liquidità e non un problema di solvenza, le autorità europee stanno mettendo a rischio l’intero sistema. Le principali economie dell’Eurozona come Spagna e Italia hanno enormi problemi debitori a livello domestico, soprattutto considerando la crescita anemica e l’evidente mancanza di competitività. L’ultima cosa di cui hanno bisogno è far credere alla gente che sia già in atto un’implicita “transfer-union”, ossia un’unione monetaria che si limita a trasferire risorse, e che le riforme e la ristrutturazione economica possano attendere.

Secondo le autorità dell’Unione europea sarebbe catastrofico ristrutturare i debiti di qualsiasi membro secondo logiche predefinite. È indubbio che il contagio continuerà a perseverare dopo la ristrutturazione greca. Cesserà di diffondersi solo nel momento in cui la Germania costruirà un solido e credibile firewall, presumibilmente intorno al debito del governo centrale spagnolo e italiano. Questo è esattamente il tipo di soluzione pratica che si auspica in un’area valutaria realmente integrata. Allora, perché i leader europei considerano inconcepibile questa soluzione intermedia?

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