Ultime sursis pour l'euro

NEW YORK – Tel un condamné à mort qui croit venue sa dernière heure, à la dernière minute l'euro a bénéficié d'une suspension de son exécution. Sa survie a été prolongée. Comme ils l'ont fait à l'issue des quatre précédents sommets de crise européens, les marchés célèbrent l'évènement - jusqu'au moment où ils vont réaliser que les problèmes fondamentaux n'ont pas été traités.

Ce sommet a apporté des éléments positifs : les dirigeants européens ont finalement compris que l'opération de routine dans laquelle l'Europe prête de l'argent aux banques pour qu'elles sauvent les Etats, et aux Etats pour qu'ils sauvent les banques, ne résoudra pas la crise. Ils reconnaissent également que les plans de sauvetage qui favorisent les nouveaux prêteurs par rapport aux plus anciens aggrave la position des investisseurs privés, qui exigent en conséquence des taux d'intérêt plus élevés. Il est inquiétant qu'il leur ait fallu si longtemps pour comprendre quelque chose d'aussi évident (et qui l'était déjà il y a plus d'une décennie et demi lors de la crise d'Asie de l'Est).

Mais ce qui est absent de l'accord qu'ils ont conclu est plus important que ce qui y figure. Il y a un an, les dirigeants européens reconnaissaient que la Grèce ne pourrait se redresser en l'absence de croissance et que l'austérité à elle seule ne permettrait pas la relance économique ; pourtant ils n'ont pas fait grand chose.

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