¿Pasó ya la crisis del euro?

BRUSELAS – Las crisis financieras tienden a comenzar abruptamente y a terminar sorpresivamente. Hace tres años, la crisis del euro comenzó cuando Grecia se convirtió en motivo de preocupación entre los responsables de la formulación de políticas y en motivo de entusiasmo entre los administradores de dinero. Desde finales del año 2012, prevaleció una especie de armisticio. ¿Significa esto que la crisis ya pasó?

Para los estándares habituales de las crisis financieras, tres años es un periodo largo de tiempo. Un año después del colapso de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008, se había restaurado la confianza en el sistema financiero de los Estados Unidos, y la recuperación había comenzado. Un poco más de un año después de que la debacle del tipo de cambio hubiese provocado la peor recesión en décadas en las economías asiáticas, dichas economías prosperaban nuevamente. ¿Llegó la eurozona, por fin, al punto de inflexión?

Se libraron muchas batallas en el transcurso de los últimos tres años – batallas relacionadas a Grecia, Irlanda, España e Italia, para mencionar los principales países afectados por la crisis. Los guerreros financieros de la Unión Europea se encuentran exhaustos. Los fondos de cobertura primero ganaban dinero apostando a que la crisis podría empeorar, pero luego perdieron dinero apostando a una desintegración de la eurozona. Las autoridades primero perdieron credibilidad por no ponerse a la altura de las circunstancias, y luego la recuperaron en parte cuando adoptaron de manera activa iniciativas audaces. Los datos recientes sugieren que el capital ha comenzado a regresar al sur de Europa.

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