La crisi dell’euro è finita?

BRUXELLES – Le crisi finanziarie tendono ad iniziare repentinamente e a finire di sorpresa. Tre anni fa la crisi dell’euro iniziò quando la Grecia divenne motivo di preoccupazione tra i policy maker e causa di agitazione tra i gestori di fondi. Dalla fine del 2012 ha prevalso una sorta di armistizio. Significa forse che la crisi è finita?

Secondo gli standard consueti delle crisi finanziarie, tre anni sono un periodo lungo. Un anno dopo il collasso di Lehman Brothers avvenuto nel settembre del 2008, la fiducia nel sistema finanziario degli Stati Uniti era stata ripristinata e la ripresa avviata. Poco più di un anno dopo che la débâcle dei regimi di cambio del 1997 aveva scatenato la peggiore recessione delle economie asiatiche da decenni, questi Paesi prosperavano di nuovo. L’Eurozona, almeno questa volta, ha raggiunto il punto di flesso?

Numerose battaglie sono state combattute negli ultimi tre anni – per la Grecia, l’Irlanda, la Spagna e l’Italia, per citare le più importanti. I combattenti finanziari dell’Unione europea sono esausti. Gli hedge fund inizialmente rendevano scommettendo sul peggioramento della crisi, poi persero il denaro scommettendo su un default dell’Eurozona. I policy maker inizialmente hanno perso credibilità non affrontando correttamente la situazione, per poi recuperarla in parte abbracciando iniziative coraggiose. I dati recenti suggeriscono che il capitale ha iniziato a rientrare nel Sud Europa.

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