Is de eurocrisis voorbij?

BRUSSEL – Financiële crises hebben de neiging abrupt te te beginnen en plotseling te eindigen. Drie jaar geleden is de eurocrisis begonnen toen Griekenland een bron van zorg werd onder beleidsmakers en een bron van opwinding onder money managers. Sinds eind 2012 lijkt zich een soort wapenstilstand af te tekenen. Betekent dit dat de crisis voorbij is?

Op grond van de gebruikelijke normen voor financiële crises is drie jaar een lange tijd. Een jaar na de ineenstorting van de Amerikaanse zakenbank Lehman Brothers in september 2008 was het vertrouwen in het financiële systeem van de Verenigde Staten teruggekeerd en was het herstel op gang gekomen. Iets meer dan een jaar nadat het wisselkoersdebacle van 1997 de ergste recessie in Azië sinds tientallen jaren op gang had gebracht, bloeiden de Aziatische economieën alweer. Heeft de eurozone nu ten langen leste het keerpunt bereikt?

Er hebben de afgelopen drie jaar veel gevechten plaatsgevonden – over Griekenland, Ierland, Spanje en Italië, om de belangrijkste te noemen. De financiële krijgsheren van de Europese Unie zijn uitgeput. Hedgefondsen hebben eerst geld verdiend door erop te gokken dat de crisis zou verergeren, maar vervolgens geld verloren door te gokken op het uiteenvallen van de eurozone. Beleidsmakers hebben eerst ingeboet aan geloofwaardigheid door telkens achter de feiten aan te lopen, maar er vervolgens weer iets van teruggewonnen door stoutmoedige initiatieven te nemen. Uit recente gegevens blijkt dat het kapitaal naar Zuid-Europa begint terug te vloeien.

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