هل انتهت أزمة اليورو؟

بروكسل ــ إن الأزمات الاقتصادية تبدأ بغتة عادة وتنتهي على نحو مفاجئ. فقبل ثلاثة أعوام، بدأت أزمة اليورو عندما أصبحت اليونان سبباً في للانزعاج الشديد بين صانعي القرار السياسي وسبباً للانفعال بين مديري الأموال. ومنذ نهاية عام 2012، سادت هدنة من نوع ما. ولكن هل يعني هذا أن الأزمة انتهت؟

إن ثلاث سنوات فترة طويلة وفقاً للمعايير المعتادة للأزمات المالية. فبعد عام من انهيار ليمان براذرز في سبتمبر/أيلول 2008، استعيدت الثقة في النظام المالي في الولايات المتحدة، وبدأ التعافي. وبعد ما يزيد على العام قليلاً منذ أشعلت كارثة أسعار الصرف في عام 1997 شرارة أسوأ ركود تشهده الاقتصادات الآسيوية طيلة عقود من الزمان، عادت هذه الاقتصادات إلى ازدهارها من جديد. تُرى هل بلغت منطقة اليورو نقطة الانقلاب بعد طول انتظار؟

لقد دارت معارك كثيرة في السنوات الثلاث الأخيرة ــ حول اليونان، وأيرلندا، وأسبانيا، وإيطاليا، على سبيل ذكر المعارك الرئيسية. فتمكن الإجهاد من محاربي الاتحاد الأوروبي الماليين. وفي بداية الأمر تمكنت صناديق التحوط من جمع المال بالرهان على بالرهان على تفاقم الأزمة، ولكنها بعد ذلك خسرت أموالها بالرهان على تفكك منطقة اليورو. في مستهل الأمر فَقَد صناع القرار السياسي مصداقيتهم بسبب تخلفهم عن المنحنى، ثم استردوا بعد هذه المصداقية من خلال تبني المبادرات الجريئة. وتشير البيانات الأخيرة إلى أن رأس المال بدأ في العودة إلى جنوب أوروبا.

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