Paul Lachine

Le catalyseur de l’euro

PARIS – En 2000, peu après le lancement de l’euro, j’ai écrit un livre dans lequel  je soutenais que tous les pays qui adopteraient la monnaie commune devraient être obligés d’une façon ou d’une autre à mettre en place des réformes structurelles. Où en sommes-nous dix ans après ?

Étonnamment, le premier pays à entreprendre ces réformes fut l’Allemagne. Grâce à un environnement favorable aux entreprises exportatrices et surtout à une discipline salariale, l’Allemagne a commencé à afficher une balance des paiements fortement excédentaire. Cette tendance a pris aujourd’hui une ampleur dramatique et permet de soutenir la croissance économique allemande et le taux de chômage le plus faible d’Europe.

L’histoire est bien différente dans les autres pays de la zone euro. Les PIIGS (Portugal, Italie, Irlande, Grèce et Espagne) ont grandement bénéficié de l’euro grâce non seulement au retrait des barrières commerciales liées à la monnaie mais aussi parce que leurs taux d’intérêt ont chuté à des niveaux impensables à l’époque d’avant l’euro.

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