La crisi dell’Euro è a metà strada

CAMBRIDGE – Ora che l’Unione europea e il Fondo monetario internazionale hanno dato il via libera al piano da 67.5 miliardi di euro per salvare le banche irlandesi, la crisi del debito nell’Eurozona è finalmente giunta al termine?

Sfortunatamente, no. In effetti, siamo probabilmente solo a metà della crisi. Certo è che un periodo di massiccia e sostenuta crescita potrebbe sicuramente curare tutti i problemi di debito dell’Europa – meglio di qualsiasi altra medicina. Ma questo scenario idilliaco sembra sempre più improbabile. La fine del gioco implica certamente un’ondata di tagli, simili a quelli che avevano messo fine alla crisi del debito sudamericano negli anni 80.

Tanto per iniziare, si prospettano numerosi salvataggi, con il Portogallo in testa. Con un tasso di crescita medio inferiore all’1% nell’ultimo decennio, e probabilmente con il mercato del lavoro più rigido d’Europa, è difficile pensare che il Portogallo possa tirarsi fuori dal suo massiccio peso debitorio.

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