Der Euro in der Mitte der Krise

CAMBRIDGE – Die Europäische Union und der Internationale Währungsfonds haben 67.5 Milliarden Euro für die Rettung der notleidenden irischen Banken bereitgestellt – nähert sich die Schuldenkrise der Eurozone nun endlich ihrem Ende?

Leider nicht. Tatsächlich sind wir wahrscheinlich erst in der Mitte der Krise angekommen. Sicher könnte ein gewaltiger, anhaltender Wachstumsschub immer noch alle Schuldenprobleme Europas kurieren – wie die aller anderen auch. Doch erscheint dieses glückliche Szenario immer unwahrscheinlicher. Das Endspiel wird höchstwahrscheinlich eher eine Welle von Schuldenabschreibungen mit sich bringen, ähnlich denen, die schließlich die lateinamerikanische Schuldenkrise in den 1980er Jahren beendeten.

Zunächst wird es weitere Rettungspakete geben, wobei Portugal ganz oben auf der Liste steht. Bei einer durchschnittlichen Wachstumsrate von unter 1 % im Laufe des letzten Jahrzehnts und dem wohl am stärksten stagnierenden Arbeitsmarkt in Europa ist schwer vorstellbar, wie Portugal seiner massiven Schuldenlast entkommen kann.

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