La carte éthiopienne

BRUXELLES – Il y a 20 ans, l'Ethiopie était un champ de bataille de la Guerre froide. Elle était du coté soviétique, une terre de famine, de dictature et de guerre civile. Elle a commencé à se transformer après le renversement de la dictature marxiste-léniniste de Mengistu Haile Mariam en 1991 ; elle se classe aujourd'hui parmi les cinq premières économies mondiales en terme de taux de croissance et elle constitue un pole de stabilité régionale.

Ce dernier facteur est fondamental, car la Corne de l'Afrique est à nouveau un casse-tête du point de vue sécuritaire. Or l'Ethiopie jouera un rôle clé si l'on veut stabiliser la région. Les pays qui veulent éviter que toute l'Afrique de l'Est ne sombre dans le chaos doivent la considérer comme un partenaire stratégique indispensable.

Au-delà du désordre sans fin qui affecte la Somalie voisine, les défis régionaux auxquels doivent faire face l'Ethiopie et son Premier ministre de longue date, Meles Zenawi, sont impressionnants. Le pays est encore sur le pied de guerre avec l'Erythrée en raison d'un conflit relatif au village frontalier de Badme qui est revendiqué par les deux pays. Au Soudan, l'accord de paix signé en 2005 par le gouvernement et les ex-rebelles du Mouvement populaire de libération du Soudan (SPLM) est de plus en plus souvent violé et le référendum sur la sécession et l'indépendance qu'il prévoit, programmé pour janvier 2011, pourrait relancer la guerre.

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