El enigma del "milagro" económico de China

La República Popular China es un país que está en una precaria transición de un sistema político-económico a otro. Las contradicciones monumentales abundan. En efecto, tal vez ninguna otra nación de importancia global tenga tantos asuntos por resolver en cuanto a sus principios y estructuras de gobierno. Pero lo que realmente hace que predecir el futuro de China sea tan difícil no es sólo que los acontecimientos recientes con frecuencia hayan desafiado los pronósticos, sino que escenarios virtualmente opuestos, aunque lógicos, sean posibles.

China surgió a lo largo de los últimos quince años como un paradigma de la energía, la decisión y el progreso económicos. Pocas regiones del mundo han sido consideradas un "milagro económico" durante tanto tiempo. En las buenas y en las malas, China ha logrado mantener tasas de crecimiento económico impresionantemente elevadas.

En 1989, China se levantó de las cenizas de la masacre de la Plaza de Tiananmen. A principios de los años noventa, aguantó la implosión del milagro económico japonés y conservó el rumbo a través de la crisis económica asiática que le siguió unos años después. En 2003 salió de la epidemia del SRAS con banderas desplegadas. Ahora parece haber repelido los esfuerzos de los EU para obligarla a revaluar su moneda.

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