Das Rätsel des chinesischen ,,Wirtschaftswunders"

Die Volksrepublik China befindet sich in einer unsicheren Übergangsphase von einem politischen/wirtschaftlichen System in das andere. Widersprüchlichkeiten sind an der Tagesordnung. Es gibt wahrscheinlich kein Land von internationaler Bedeutung, das mit mehr ungelösten Problemen hinsichtlich seiner Führungsprinzipien und Machtstrukturen zu kämpfen hat wie China. Was aber Prognosen über Chinas Zukunftsaussichten so schwierig macht, ist nicht nur, dass jüngste Entwicklungen oftmals im Widerspruch zu den Vorhersagen standen, sondern dass auch absolut gegenteilige Szenarien durchaus eintreten können.

In den letzten 15 Jahren entwickelte sich China zu einem Musterbeispiel an wirtschaftlicher Energie, Entschlossenheit und Fortschrittlichkeit. Es gibt nur wenige Regionen auf der Welt, die über so lange Zeit für ein ,,Wirtschaftswunder" gehalten wurden. Über gute und weniger gute Jahre hinweg ist es China gelungen, beeindruckend hohe Wachstumsraten zu erzielen.

Im Jahr 1989 entstieg China den Trümmern des Massakers am Tienamen-Platz. In den frühen Neunzigerjahren des vorigen Jahrhunderts überstand es die Implosion des japanischen Wirtschaftswunders und blieb auch später in den Jahren der asiatischen Wirtschaftskrise beständig auf Kurs. Auch die SARS-Epidemie im heurigen Jahr überwand das Land ohne Probleme. Und wie es jetzt aussieht, hat man auch die Bestrebungen der USA, China zu einer Abwertung seiner Währung zu zwingen, abgewehrt.

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