L'Énigme du « miracle » économique chinois

La République populaire de Chine est un pays en pleine transition précaire entre deux systèmes économiques et politiques. Les contradictions monumentales abondent. En fait, aucune nation d'importance internationale ne doit faire face à autant de questions à résoudre sur ses principes régulateurs et ses structures que la Chine. Pourtant, ce qui rend l'avenir de la Chine si difficile à prévoir ne tient pas uniquement aux développements récents qui ont si souvent défié toute prévision mais bien plutôt le fait que tous les scénarios, quand ils restent censés, sont possibles, mêmes quand ils s'opposent.

La Chine s'est montrée lors de ces quinze dernières années comme le paradigme de la vitalité économique, de la détermination et du progrès. Peu de zones géographiques ailleurs dans le monde ont été perçues comme zone de « miracle économique » sur une aussi longue période. Contre vents et marées, la Chine a réussi à maintenir des taux de croissance particulièrement élevés.

En 1989, la Chine s'est relevée des cendres du massacre de Tien An Men. Au début des années 1990, elle a surmonté la crise du miracle économique japonais et a maintenu un cap régulier lors de la crise économique asiatique vers la fin des années 1990. En 2003, elle a survécu à l'épidémie de SRAS avec brio. Aujourd'hui, elle semble avoir repoussé les efforts américains exigeant qu'elle réévalue sa monnaie.

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