Paul Lachine

能源赤字

米兰—最近,美国媒体关于汽油价格和政治的报道让我大吃一惊。政治学家们一致认为,总统支持率与汽油价格高度相关:汽油价格上升,则总统支持率下降。但是,考虑到美国长期不重视能源安全和弹性,因此奥巴马政府需要对汽油价格升高负责的说法是站不住脚的。

20世纪70年代石油价格冲击距今已有40年。我们从中学到了大量教训。短期影响——总是发生在油价快速上升时期——是抑制其他商品的消费从而拉低增长,因为石油消费的调整不像其他商品和服务那么快。

但是,假以时日,人们能够也将削减石油消费作为应对。他们会购买更多的节能汽车和电器,加强房屋隔热,有时甚至改乘公交出行。因此,长期影响与短期影响有很大不同,长期影响要小得多。你在节能方面做得越好,油价波动对你的影响也就越小。

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