Iran: Nuklearkrise ohne Ende

Der Iran wird weiterhin Uran anreichern, unabhängig davon, ob in Amerika nun ein Republikaner oder ein Demokrat Präsident ist. Gleichzeitig werden sich die Vereinigten Staaten jeder Art von iranischem Nuklearprogramm – selbst einem zivilen Programm – entgegenstellen, weil ein solches zur Stabilität des Regimes in Teheran beitragen würde. Die Folge ist, dass die US-iranischen Beziehungen noch auf Jahre hinaus von nuklearen Spannungen geplagt sein werden.

Der Iran, so wird oft behauptet, brauche angesichts seiner überreichlichen Öl- und Erdgasreserven die Atomkraft nicht. Doch die iranische Regierung steht wirtschaftlich und politisch unter Druck, seiner wachsenden Bevölkerung und anfälligen Wirtschaft mehr Strom zu liefern. Der Einsatz von Öl oder Erdgas zur Stromproduktion im Inland bedroht die Öl- und Gasexporte, die die wichtigste staatliche Einnahmequelle darstellen. Tatsächlich sind, da der Ölverbrauch im Inland schneller wächst als die Förderung, die staatlichen Einnahmen aus den Ölexporten bereits jetzt im Sinken begriffen.

Die Nuklearenergie würde daher den Rückgang bei den Staatseinnahmen stoppen, indem sie mehr Öl und Erdgas für den Export freigeben würde. Irans – noch zu erschließende – Erdgasvorkommen sind kein Ersatz für billigen Nuklearstrom, da das Gas sich gewinnträchtiger für andere Zwecke als die Stromerzeugung nutzen lässt.

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