Le paradoxe de la crise iranienne

L'Iran continuera à enrichir de l'uranium, que le président américain soit républicain ou démocrate. De leur coté, les USA s'opposent à tout programme nucléaire iranien, même civil, car il contribue à la stabilité du régime de Téhéran. Aussi, les tensions autour du nucléaire iranien vont sans doute perturber les relations irano-américaine durant encore quelques années.

On entend souvent dire que l'Iran, du fait de ses ressources pétrolières et de ses réserves en gaz naturel, n'a pas besoin du nucléaire. Mais dans le contexte d'une économie fragile et des pressions politiques dont il est l'objet, le gouvernement iranien doit fournir davantage d'électricité à une population qui augmente. Les quantités croissantes de pétrole et de gaz naturel destinées à produire de l'électricité à son propre usage menacent les exportations de ces produits, première source de revenue de l'Etat. La consommation intérieure de pétrole augmentant plus rapidement que la production, les revenus liés aux exportations de pétrole sont déjà en baisse.

L'énergie nucléaire permettrait de mettre fin à la baisse des revenus de l'Etat, car le pétrole et le gaz ainsi économisés pourraient être exportés. Les réserves iraniennes en gaz naturel ne sont pas un substitut à l'énergie nucléaire bon marché, car son utilisation est plus rentable dans d'autres secteurs que celui de la production d'électricité.

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