无休止的伊朗核危机

不论美国总统是共和党人还是民主党人,伊朗都会继续增加铀储备。同时,美国会反对任何形式的伊朗核计划—即使是民用计划—因为这会使德黑兰的政权更为稳固。因此,核紧张的局面会在未来相当长的时间里困扰美伊两国的关系。

通常的意见认为伊朗由于有着丰富的石油和天然气储量所以没有必要发展核电。但伊朗政府由于要为日益增长的人口和脆弱的经济提供越来越多的电力而面临着经济和政治的压力。使用石油和天然气进行国内的电力供应会威胁到伊朗政府的主要收入来源,即石油和天然气的出口。的确,随着国内石油消费量增长超过产量,来自石油出口的政府收入已呈下降之势。

因此,发展核电会通过使更多的石油和天然气能够出口而遏制政府收入的下滑。伊朗的天然气资源即使得到充分开发也不会替代廉价核电,因为天然气用于其它用途比用来发电具有更高的经济效益。

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