The End of Ukraine?

Ukraine’s future as an independent democratic state hangs in the balance. President Leonid Kuchma stands accused of complicity in the murder of Georgy Gongadze, a journalist whose headless, mutilated body was identified this week, months after his disappearance. Revelations about Mr Kuchma’s involvement in a host of crimes from murder to corruption came from a former bodyguard, who after secretly bugging the President’s office, leaked tapes, which – if proved authentic – are a devastating indictment.

Mr Kuchma has now endorsed an investigation, even suggesting that foreign experts be included. While a praiseworthy gesture, it cannot be converted into reality unless Mr Kuchma stands aside and allows the investigation to go forward.

Even as he claims to support an investigation, President Kuchma, takes any available opportunity to lash out at his opponents. In a letter to The Financial Times, he said “my main accusers are precisely the same people who have blocked Ukraine’s transformation to a free economy” – condemning his critics for using Mr Gongadze’s death as “a political weapon designed to destabilize Ukraine”. Mr Kuchma publicly denounced the crowds of protesters against him as “a herd under various flags”.

If Mr Kuchma remains recalcitrant, continues to harass political opponents and the media, and drags his feet on the investigation, he risks relegating Ukraine to the same fate as neighbouring Belarus, where a repressive regime, embraced only by Russia, silences independent voices and political opposition

The outside world cannot stand idly by. Western governments are already deeply involved in Ukraine. Among former Soviet republics, Ukraine is the single biggest recipient of US aid and, worldwide, the fourth largest recipient of American aid. In the period 1991-97, the European Union, and member states gave ECU 4.2 billion of which 1.8 billion was in grants. Since the early 1990s, the World Bank has approved more than $3 billion in loans and grants and two guarantees amounting to $220 million.

This large-scale Western involvement was motivated mainly by geopolitical considerations. I, too, have been deeply engaged in Ukraine, but my aim has been to help Ukraine and other former Soviet countries make the transition from closed to open societies. I established the Ukrainian Renaissance Foundation in 1989, two years before Ukraine became an independent country. Since then I have given more than $100 million to support Ukraine.

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I first met Mr Kuchma when he was a candidate in the 1994 presidential elections. President Richard Nixon had invited us to lunch. As fate would have it, Mr Nixon died that day so Mr Kuchma and I dined alone. At the time the Ukrainian politician impressed me as more energetic and dedicated than his predecessor.

After his promising start, I watched the decline in Mr Kuchma's performance with dismay. I observed the increasing pressure on the independent media and the use of questionable methods during his re-election campaign. I cautioned the West against tolerating the President's excesses because of Ukraine's sensitive geopolitical position. I warned that his re-election would strengthen corrupt oligarchs, such as Oleksander Volkov, who had bankrolled his campaign. In February, Mr Kuchma awarded Volkov, whose money laundering was Mr Gongadze's final investigative target, Ukraine highest order of merit.

I last saw Mr Kuchma in November. It was a one-on-one meeting in the President’s office on Bankova. I was taken aback by his scathing, virulent remarks about Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko and former Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko. I told him that earlier that day I had seen Mr Yushchenko, who professed loyalty to Mr Kuchma. It stood in stark contrast to the President's statements. I pleaded that it would be better for the future of his country if the two could work together. Later, I found myself in the uncomfortable position of urging Mr Yushchenko to try to accommodate the President.

That was before the disclosure of Mr Kuchma's possible role in Gongadze's assassination.

Now, Ukrainian public opinion is demanding an independent investigation into the circumstances of Mr. Gongadze’s death. Demonstrators turn out for protests, which are growing in strength, to call for an investigation and increasingly, for Mr Kuchma’s resignation.

If Mr. Kuchma cares about Ukraine’s survival as an independent democratic state, he must take responsibility for his actions and step aside, pending the results of the investigation. The West must now take a clear position, denouncing Mr Kuchma’s behavior and actions. The international community to cannot continue to do business with Mr Kuchma until an impartial investigation has been completed and those responsible are held accountable. The population needs to know that the West stands with them, opposing any attempt by Mr Kuchma to evade responsibility – and ultimately, the law.

I remain committed to helping the development of open society in Ukraine. I urge other donors to maintain their support for civil society there. It would be tragic if Mr Kuchma's failings were to compel the international community to abandon Ukraine’s civil society in these most difficult times.

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