La fine del mondo come lo conosciamo

CAMBRIDGE – Consideriamo il seguente scenario. Dopo una vittoria del partito di sinistra Syriza, il nuovo governo greco annuncia che vuole rinegoziare i termini del suo accordo con il Fondo Monetario Internazionale e l’Unione europea. Il Cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel mantiene la sua posizione continuando a sostenere che la Grecia deve rispettare le condizioni esistenti.

Per paura di un imminente crollo finanziario, i depositanti greci si affrettano a ritirare i propri depositi. Questa volta, la Banca Centrale Europea si rifiuta di offrire un piano di salvataggio lasciando le banche greche a corto di liquidità. Il governo greco istituisce una forma di controllo sui capitali ed è in ultima istanza forzata ad emettere dracme per garantire liquidità al suo interno.

Con l’uscita della Grecia dall’eurozona, gli occhi vengono puntati sulla Spagna. La Germania e altri paesi rimangono inizialmente irremovibili sul fatto che faranno qualunque cosa sia necessaria per evitare un simile assalto agli sportelli in Spagna. Il governo spagnolo annuncia nuovi tagli fiscali e riforme strutturali, e, grazie al sostegno dei fondi del Meccanismo di Stabilità europea, la Spagna rimane finanziariamente a galla per diversi mesi.

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