La fin du monde tel que nous le connaissons

CAMBRIDGE – Suivons ensemble le scénario. Après une victoire du Syriza, le parti de gauche de la Grèce, le nouveau gouvernement déclare sa volonté de renégocier les conditions de l'entente avec le Fonds monétaire international et l'Union européenne. La chancelière allemande Angela Merkel reste sur ses positions et réplique que la Grèce doit respecter les conditions actuelles.

Dans la crainte d'une catastrophe financière imminente, les détenteurs de comptes dans des banques grecques se ruent au portillon. Cette fois-ci, la Banque centrale européenne refuse de venir à la rescousse des banques grecques qui subissent une énième crise de liquidité. Le gouvernement grec instaure des contrôles des capitaux et est finalement obligé de mettre en circulation des drachmes afin d'assurer l'offre en liquidités du pays.

La Grèce expulsée de la zone euro, tous les yeux se tournent vers l'Espagne. L'Allemagne et d'autres pays se font au début rassurants en maintenant qu'ils éviteront coûte que coûte qu'une panique bancaire similaire s'y installe. Le gouvernement espagnol annonce d’autres compressions budgétaires et des réformes structurelles. Soutenue par des fonds du mécanisme européen de stabilité, l'Espagne parvient à remettre financièrement son économie à flot pendant plusieurs mois.

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