Конец российско-китайских дебатов

Десять лет назад сравнение процессов реформ в Китае и России было в моде среди интеллектуалов. Было ли предпочтительнее начать с экономики – старайтесь и богатейте, быстро, но не раскачивая политическую лодку, следуя китайскому образцу? Или же лучше было начать с политики – вернуть свободу и рассчитывать на последующее процветание, что казалось российским путем согласно Михаилу Горбачёву и Борису Ельцину?

Сегодня начались новые дебаты на тему сравнения. На этот раз объектами для сравнения являются не Россия и Китай, поскольку Россия давно перестала быть предметом сравнения. В настоящий момент в дебаты на тему сравнения вовлечены два новых экономических, демографических и политических гиганта – Китай и Индия. Ежегодный экономический рост Китая составляет около 8-9% в последние 26 лет; Индия демонстрирует аналогичные показатели в последнее десятилетие.

Кажется, что в “плоском мире” глобализации, если позаимствовать яркую метафору Томаса Фридмана, России больше нет места. Разумеется, Россия все еще остается второй по величине ядерной державой мира и, как один из ведущих мировых экспортеров нефти и газа, извлекает выгоду из высоких цен на энергоносители. Однако население России исчезает у нас на глазах. При средней продолжительности жизни мужчин всего лишь 57 лет, страна ежегодно теряет около 800000 человек. В действительности Россия скорее уязвимая нефтедобывающая страна, нежели современный экономический гигант.

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