Konec rusko-čínských příměrů

Před deseti lety bylo intelektuální módou porovnávat reformní procesy v Číně a v Rusku. Bylo vhodnější tak jako Číňané začít ekonomikou, tedy snažit se rychle zbohatnout, aniž by to rozčeřilo vody politicky? Nebo bylo lepší začít politikou, obnovit svobodu a doufat, že prosperita přijde později, což se jevilo jako směřování Ruska za Michaila Gorbačova a Borise Jelcina?

Dnes začala nová komparativní debata. Tentokrát není tématem Rusko versus Čína, protože Rusko už dávno přestalo být předmětem srovnávání. Místo toho se nová komparativní debata věnuje dvěma novým asijským ekonomickým, demografickým a politickým obrům, Číně a Indii. Roční hospodářský růst Číny už 26 let dosahuje zhruba 8-9%; Indie v poslední dekádě zaznamenala obdobné tempo.

V „plochém světě“ globalizace – abychom si vypůjčili trefnou metaforu Thomase Friedmana – Rusko podle všeho už nemá místo. Samozřejmě, Rusko je stále druhou největší jadernou mocností na světě a jako jeden z předních světových vývozců ropy a plynu má prospěch z dnešních vysokých cen energií. Ruská populace nám však mizí před očima. Průměrná délka života dosahuje u mužů pouhých 57 let a v zemi každoročně ubývá bezmála 800 tisíc lidí. Vskutku, Rusko je spíš křehký stát produkující ropu než modernizující se hospodářský gigant.

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