俄中辩论的结束

就在十年前,把中俄改革相互比较还是知识界的一种潮流。回想起来,当时是否更应该遵循中国的模式,从经济入手¾尝试发展,然后快速繁荣,而不掺杂政治的因素;或者更应该遵循米凯尔•戈尔巴乔夫和鲍里斯·叶利钦倡导的俄式路线,从政治入手,在恢复自由的基础上再重建繁荣?

今天,一场新的对比辩论已经开始。但这次不是在俄罗斯和中国之间,因为俄罗斯早已没有资格成为比较的对象。取而代之的较量是在亚洲两个新兴经济、人口、和政治巨人¾印度和中国之间展开的。中国的年经济增长率在过去的26年中始终保持在8-9%,印度在过去十年间发展速度也大致相当。

借用托马斯·弗里德曼的一个有力的比喻,在全球化的“扁平世界”中,俄罗斯似乎已经失去了它原有的地位。当然,俄罗斯仍然是第二大核强国,也是世界石油和天然气最主要的出口国之一。但是,俄罗斯的人口正在人们眼前消失。男性平均寿命只有57岁,这意味着,这个国家每年将会失去80万的人口。实际上,俄罗斯更像是一个脆弱的产油国,而不是现代化的经济巨人。

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