当心未来全球实际利率上升风险

北京 – 2007年以来,全球经济已经在金融和债务泥潭挣扎了五年。由美国雷曼兄弟引发的国际金融危机把全球推向了低利率或零利率时代,为了降低偿债负担,发达国家普遍采取了长期零利率或量化宽松的方式,极尽所能维持着脆弱的债务循环,因此,人们几乎确定,低利率或零利率已成为常态。然而,必须警惕的是,未来十年全球的实际利率面临着逐步上升的风险,廉价利率的时代可能一去不复返。

事实上,在IMF追踪的1929年以来的14轮经济周期中,本轮复苏是最缓慢的,但信贷反弹却是最快的。目前全球央行的资产规模约为18万亿美元,占全球GDP的30%,是十年前的两倍。发达国家央行也通过压低官方基准利率引导市场实际利率走低。从2007年8月起,美联储先后10次大规模降息,联邦利率从5.25%降至0-0.25%的目标区间,12次降低贴现率累计575个基点至0.5%;欧央行先后8次降低主要再融资操作利率累计325个基点至0.78%;日本央行两度降息累计40个基点至0.1%;英格兰央行9次降息累计525个基点至历史最低0.5%水平。

然而,发达国家央行极尽所能地压低利率,却导致了金融市场资金配置发生扭曲。在本轮金融危机和债务危机中,债务规模和赤字规模最大的美国却成为廉价债务融资的最大赢家。在欧债危机愈演愈烈之际,美国长期实际利率触及新低。美国10年期零息国债收益率与10年期零息通胀互换利率的差已经为负,这意味着投资者持有长期美债要产生真实的损失。

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