当心未来全球实际利率上升风险

北京 – 2007年以来,全球经济已经在金融和债务泥潭挣扎了五年。由美国雷曼兄弟引发的国际金融危机把全球推向了低利率或零利率时代,为了降低偿债负担,发达国家普遍采取了长期零利率或量化宽松的方式,极尽所能维持着脆弱的债务循环,因此,人们几乎确定,低利率或零利率已成为常态。然而,必须警惕的是,未来十年全球的实际利率面临着逐步上升的风险,廉价利率的时代可能一去不复返。

事实上,在IMF追踪的1929年以来的14轮经济周期中,本轮复苏是最缓慢的,但信贷反弹却是最快的。目前全球央行的资产规模约为18万亿美元,占全球GDP的30%,是十年前的两倍。发达国家央行也通过压低官方基准利率引导市场实际利率走低。从2007年8月起,美联储先后10次大规模降息,联邦利率从5.25%降至0-0.25%的目标区间,12次降低贴现率累计575个基点至0.5%;欧央行先后8次降低主要再融资操作利率累计325个基点至0.78%;日本央行两度降息累计40个基点至0.1%;英格兰央行9次降息累计525个基点至历史最低0.5%水平。

然而,发达国家央行极尽所能地压低利率,却导致了金融市场资金配置发生扭曲。在本轮金融危机和债务危机中,债务规模和赤字规模最大的美国却成为廉价债务融资的最大赢家。在欧债危机愈演愈烈之际,美国长期实际利率触及新低。美国10年期零息国债收益率与10年期零息通胀互换利率的差已经为负,这意味着投资者持有长期美债要产生真实的损失。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/tkkIfhr/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.